Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Aluminium Can Come Under Pressure As Day Progresses

Aluminium......
Aluminium can come under pressure as the day progresses as inventories can play a critical factor for the value. The aluminium inventories are at all time highs and this is already creating supply glut in world markets.
The demand has been lower in China and world mining majors has already tightened their belt to reduce the amount of aluminium produced. Until the supply cuts are seen in aluminium prices, are expected to remain under corrective scanner of the bears. LME aluminium inventories increased by 9100 tonnes to 5167725 tonnes on Monday.
On Tuesday, LME three month prices of aluminium was trading 0.9 percent up at $ 1898.75 per tonne. MCX aluminium expiry for April was trading at Rs 102.3 per kg, down 0.15 percent. Aluminium prices have so far tested a high of Rs 102.4 per kg and a high of Rs 102.2 per kg.
Source by Commodity Insights


Monday, 29 April 2013

Economic Buzz: Japan Housing Starts Jump In March

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said that Japanese Housing Starts rose to a seasonally adjusted 7.3%, from 3.0% in the preceding quarter. Analysts had expected Japanese Housing Starts to rise to 5.5% in the last quarter.

Source by Commodity Insights

Sunday, 28 April 2013

Economic Buzz: IMF Says Asia Risks Lower


Asia Pacific economies will improve at a gradual pace in 2013 as the global economic outlook has brightened, but the risk of financial imbalance is growing in some parts of the region, the International Monetary Fund said in a report released Monday.
The IMF said the region as a whole should manage 5.7% growth in 2013, lower than its most recent forecast in October of 5.9%, partly because the region-wide slowdown in 2012 was deeper than IMF officials had expected. The IMF estimated 2012 growth at 5.3%.
The IMF defines the Asia Pacific region to include Australia and New Zealand and South Asian countries Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka.
Buoyant domestic demand and strong capital inflows, fueled by easy monetary policies in the U.S., European Union and Japan, are the main factors underpinning expected steady growth in Asia, according to the IMF report.
Those inflows should continue in the near-term. "In particular, portfolio equity flows are estimated to boost private consumption and investment in Asia mainly by raising asset prices and boosting credit growth," the IMF report said.
But the IMF flashed a caution signal that those inflows also create overheating risks, especially when combined with the effects of already loose credit in some countries that has fueled asset buying. Countries that have seen the highest growth in credit in recent quarters include Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, according to a chart in the IMF report.
"Markets have clearly warmed up, notably in several [Southeast Asian] economies, although they are not yet overheating, “according to the IMF report.
That means policymakers in Asia will need to walk a fine line between guarding against asset bubbles and continuing to support growth. "Monetary policymakers should stand ready to respond early and decisively to any prospective risks of overheating," the IMF wrote.
China will remain the region's growth engine, adding 8.0% and 8.2% to gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014, respectively, the IMF said. Growth in Southeast Asian economies will be stable at 5.5% in 2013 and 2014, according to the report.
But China remains at risk of slowing, particularly if its new government reform program stumbles, which would exert a drag on the rest of the region. Such a slowdown "could be triggered by financial stress related to rapid growth in alternative financial products or uneven progress in reforms that would affect confidence, foreign direct investment, and private investment," according to the IMF report.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Rallies Into Second Week

Gold.....

rallied into second week of gains after ending last week with solid gains of 4% the biggest weekly advance in three months.
Gold futures for June delivery are trading up $14.3 at $ 1467.9 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal is likely to face a resistance near $1490 levels and support near $ 1400 levels.
Despite Friday's lackluster performance, gold futures rallied 4%, on the week. Gold prices rose to the highest levels of the day after data showed that the U.S. economy grew less-than-forecast in the first quarter, underling expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its loose monetary policy in place for the indefinite future.
The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.5% in the three months to March, missing expectations for growth of 3.0%.
Reports of central bank buying also benefitted sentiment. Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan all added to their gold reserves in March, according to International Monetary Fund data released earlier in the week.
In the week ahead, gold traders will be focusing on Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy statement, for further hints regarding the future of the central bank's monetary easing program.
Investors will be also be watching Friday's U.S. data on non-farm payrolls, as they attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing from the Fed.
MCX June gold futures may continue to trade above Rs 27000 levels with resistance near Rs 27500-700 levels this week and support near Rs 25000-24400 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Friday, 26 April 2013

Economic Buzz: U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index Rises

The University of Michigan said that U.S consumer sentiment rose to a seasonally adjusted 76.4, from 72.3 in the preceding month. Analysts had expected UoM consumer sentiment to rise to 73.2 last month.
Source by Commodity Insights

Economic Buzz: U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Rises 1.20% In Q1

The US Commerce Department informed that the US inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose 0.9% during the first quarter of 2013, over last quarter. The Core reading, which strips the food and energy costs, rose 1.2% QoQ. Prior surveys were calling 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively.
Source by Commodity Insights

Crude Off Highs, Massive Spurt In MCX Futures OI

Oil.....
MCX Crude oil backed off from their intraday highs as a frail outing for European equities took toll on the prices in global markets. WTI Crude topped a two-week high mark near $94 per barrel yesterday as worries Syria might possibly use chemical weapons stirred the market and pushed the commodity up for a second day. Prices stayed supported in Asia today but flipped back later and currently trade at $93.24, down 40 cent per barrel on the day.

Euro remained under stress. The Spanish unemployment rate jumped to a new record of 27.16% in the first quarter of 2013 as the number of unemployed persons increases by 237,400 persons to 6,202,700. Spain's Institute of National Statistics said that the number of employed persons decreased by 322,300 persons in the first quarter of 2013, to 16,634,700. In the last 12 months, employment has dropped by 798,500 persons, (490,200 men and 308,300 women).

While this highlighted the sorry state of affairs in peripheral economies in the region, the broader worries about the futures of Euro also remained in focus and pulled the stocks in red today. Media reports noted that Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann sent a confidential statement to the German constitutional court criticizing the European Central Bank's outright monetary transactions.

The US GDP data is due later on in the day and oil could witness a further moderation ahead of the key release. MCX Crude oil futures tested highs of Rs 5074 per barrel and eased in the afternoon. The counter quotes at Rs 5064, up Rs 5 per barrel on the day with a massive 30% increase in the open interest as investors eyed the break above the key Rs 5000 per barrel level.
Source by Commodity Insights

Shanghai Weekly Inventories Data- 26 April 2013

Source by Commodity Insights

Thursday, 25 April 2013

Economic Buzz: New Zealand's Trade Balance Rises To NZD 718 Million

Statistics New Zealand said today that export values increased NZ$213 million (5.1 percent) for the March 2013 month, compared with March 2012, and imports decreased NZ$319 million (7.9 percent). The trade balance for the March 2013 month was a surplus of NZ$$718 million (16 percent of exports). This compares with an average deficit of NZ$354 million (8.3 percent) of exports over the previous five March months. The seasonally adjusted trade balance for the March 2013 quarter was a surplus of $52 million, equivalent to 0.4 percent of exports. This follows a deficit of $59 million in the December 2012 quarter.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Jumps As Dollar Falls

Gold.........
Gold futures have jumped above $1480 levels in the Asia electronic trades today supported by the weakness in the US dollar. The metal has jumped more than $50 after hitting the low of $1321 on 16th April on bargain buying and weakness in the US dollar.
The U.S. dollar fell against key rivals Friday, as investors monitored Japan's monetary-policy meeting and awaited quarterly growth figures from the U.S. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell to 82.576 from 82.813 late Thursday. The index faced a decline of around 0.2% for the week.
The dollar lingered at 98.66 against Japanese yen after trading over 99 late on Thursday. The dollar lost ground against the yen the previous day, though those losses were limited by weekly U.S. jobless claims falling to near a five-year low.
The yen found some strength on Friday after Japan's Finance Ministry said consumer prices fell in March from the year-earlier period. The core consumer price index, which strips out volatile prices for fresh food, declined 0.5%.
Japan's key retail-price gauge deflated in March from a year earlier, even as the index rose compared to February's levels, the Finance Ministry reported Friday. The core consumer price index, which strips out volatile fresh-food prices, was 0.5% lower than for March of last year, the fifth straight monthly drop. However, the core CPI rose 0.3% compared with the previous month.
Gold for June delivery is trading up $13.5 at $ 1475.5 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it climbed by $38.30, or 2.7%, to settle at $1,462 an ounce. Prices closed at their highest level since April 12.
Gold prices have had a rough April, with a tumble of over 8% putting them in position for their worst monthly slide since December 2011. Data Thursday showed US weekly jobless claims at the second lowest level of the year. Reports on first-quarter gross domestic product and consumer sentiment in April are slated for release Friday.
MCX June gold crossed the Rs 27000 mark, however it is expected to face a good resistance near Rs 27300-700 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Indian Copper Troubled By Rise In Indian Rupee

Copper.....
Decoupling between London Metal Exchange and MCX Copper prices was noted in the evening session trades. The prices of Copper in Indian futures platform of MCX was dragged down on every rise due to volatility in Indian Rupee even as LME saw recovery for second consecutive day.
INR was trading with a bounce of 0.15 percent against the Dollar when last seen at 54.15. The Dollar was also lower by 0.4 percent against the Euro at 1.3062. Crucial reports from US are lined up in today's trades including initial and continuing jobless claims. US Secretary of Treasury Jacob Lew is due to speak today that will pave way for further trades in Forex markets.
Rise in INR was challenging the rise in Copper that was exchanging hands at Rs 381 per kg. The prices remained in a skewed Rs 4 range. Red metal has tested a high of Rs 383.4 per kg and a low of Rs 380 per kg so far in the day.
Meanwhile, LME Copper continued to move from strength to strength. Copper three month prices were at $ 7055 per tonne, up from $ 6973 per tonne from last night. Today, inventories of Copper supported the rise. Copper stockpiles were down by 1900 tonnes on intraday basis to 618475 tonnes.
Aluminium recovered for the second straight day as traders started to build some long positions after a debacle this week. Heavy correction in the metals has increased speculation for buying in metals. LME three month Aluminium delivery contract was trading at $ 1918 per tonne, up 1 percent.
In another news, World primary Nickel production is expected at 1.86 million tonnes in 2013, up 5.7 percent from 2012. Primary Nickel usage is expected to increase by 7.3 percent to 1.77 million tonnes. World Nickel markets are estimated to be in surplus of 90000 tonnes in 2013, as per International Nickel Study Group (INSG).
LME three month Nickel prices were trading at $ 15202 per tonne, down by a marginal $ 45 per tonne. The prices have corrected by more than 10 percent so far in 2013 after a correction of 7 percent in 2012. MCX Nickel was seen at Rs 822.4 per kg, down 0.32 percent.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Shanghai Zinc Recovers Sharply In Intraday, LME Zinc Up $ 14

Zinc......

Shanghai Zinc futures recovered sharply upwards on Thursday and settled at 14690 yuan per tonne up 135 yuan per tonne. The recovery in counter last night on LME paved way for gains in metals after the Chinese markets opened.
It is to be noted that the Shanghai Zinc is trading above LME Zinc prices. LME Zinc three month delivery was trading at $ 1914 per tonne on Thursday, up $ 14 per tonne. Inventories of Zinc in LME have declined by 11 percent to 1086550 tonnes.
Zinc futures on MCX were trading at Rs 102.2 per kg, up 0.05 percent. The prices are resisted at Rs 102.75 per kg. Support for the contract is at Rs 101.3 per kg.
Zinc was in surplus of 290000 tonnes in whole of 2012, as per estimates of WBMS. On a cumulative basis, Zinc markets recorded a surplus of 138700 tonnes in January-February 2013 compared to a surplus of 139500 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.
Source by Commodity Insights

World Nickel Surplus Estimated At 90000 tonnes In 2013 Says INSG

Nickel.....
World Nickel markets are estimated to be in surplus of 90000 tonnes in 2013, as per International Nickel Study Group (INSG). Opening of number of new mines will be creating surplus in Nickel. Having said that, INSG said that surplus will be narrow this year compared to last year on account of recovery in demand. Last year, world Nickel markets were in surplus of 110000 tonnes.
World primary Nickel production is expected at 1.86 million tonnes in 2013, up 5.7 percent from 2012. Primary Nickel usage is expected to increase by 7.3 percent to 1.77 million tonnes. China is exporting Nickel ores from Philippines. These ores are being used to produce Nickel Pig Iron in China. Indonesia banned its Nickel ores exports but INSG has noted that country hasn't affected the exports to China.
LME three month
Nickel prices were trading at $ 15380 per tonne. The prices have corrected by more than 10 percent so far in 2013 after a correction of 7 percent in 2012. This makes Nickel the worst performer in the whole metals pack.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Gold Hops Near $1450 In Asia

Gold.......


Gold futures jumped near $1450 an ounce buoyed by positive wave in the Asia equities post the South Korea growth data. However, the metal should face a resistance near $1450-55 levels.
Asia stock markets traded mostly higher Thursday, with South Korean shares supported by better-than-expected economic growth data, though mainland Chinese shares saw choppy action ahead of a slew of major earnings reports.
The Kospi climbed 0.5% in Seoul after data showing South Korea's gross domestic product increased 0.9% during the January-to-March period, three times the growth seen in the preceding quarter and higher than expectations for a 0.7% expansion.
Gold for June delivery is trading up $20 at $ 1444 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it climbed $14.90, or 1.1%, to settle at $1,423.70 an ounce. Gold futures rose 1% on Wednesday as bargain hunters waded into the beaten-down market, lifting physical demand for the metal following disappointing U.S. economic data.
Goldman Sachs on Tuesday closed its recommendation for clients to “short” gold, telling them to exit out of those bets on lower gold prices. The investment bank on April 10 cut its short- and long-term gold forecasts as prices approached bear-market territory.
Today, MCX June Gold may try hitting Rs 26500 per 10 grams facing resistance near Rs 26700 levels.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Lead Dented By More Than 1 Percent On LME

Lead....


The prices of metals are witnessing no respite from the sell off that began this month and cornered the metals to multi month lows. Same is the case with battery material lead that is down by more than 1 percent on Tuesday. Three month Lead prices were seen at $ 1993.5 per tonne, compared to $ 2015 per tonne on Monday.
Lead futures for April expiry on MCX was trading at Rs 107.3 per kg, down 0.7 percent. The metal is expected to get supports at Rs 107 and Rs 106.4 per kg. Resistance for the contract is at Rs 109.8 per kg.
Lead demand emerges from batteries of vehicles, power products like the UPS and invertors and Mobiles. The slowdown in India is a big negative as the local demand has been suffering.
The total cumulative production of automobiles for the financial year ending March 2013 was just 1.2 percent over last year. In the month of March 2013, the position was far worse as total production was down by 8.7 percent to 1685355 units.
Domestic sales increased by 2.6 percent in April-March period 2013, while in the month of March 2013 domestic sales was down by 7.7 percent over March 2012.
International Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global Lead markets were in surplus of 8000 tonnes in January- February 2013. This was lower than 26000 tonnes surplus in January-February 2013.
Total production of Refined Lead was 1.683 million tonnes in January-February 2013 while the refined Lead consumption was 1.675 million tonnes in the same period.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Oil Slides Post Weak China Manufacturing

Oil......
Crude oil futures slid in tandem with the Asian equities after the HSBC data released Tuesday showed that China's manufacturing-activity growth has slowed in April.
Hong Kong stocks fell Tuesday, with the pace of the benchmark's loss accelerating after a weaker-than-expected preliminary April reading in Chinese factory-activity figures from HSBC. The Hang Seng Index fell 128 points, or 0.6%, to 21,915.77. The HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Index fell to 50.5 from 51.6 in March.
June crude oil futures are trading at $ 88.72 down 47 cents a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May oil contract rose 75 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $88.76 a barrel yesterday. The May contract expired at the close of Monday’s trading session.
Prices finished last week with a loss of 3.6%, marking the third consecutive week of declines for the commodity, even though they tallied a gain of 1.8% on Thursday and Friday.
Oil prices on Friday rose after a Venezuelan official from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reportedly said late Thursday that the cartel may hold an emergency meeting to discuss the recent drop in oil prices.
On Monday, Ali Obaid al-Yabhouni, the United Arab Emirates’ governor for OPEC, said that the group’s oil output ceiling would remain at 30 million barrels per day, as that level was “sufficient.”
He also said he didn’t expect the cartel to hold an extraordinary meeting because the next scheduled one was coming up soon. It’s set for May 31.
The price pressure for oil Monday included disappointing U.S. existing-home sales data for last month and a drop in earnings for Caterpillar Inc., as both feed a weak demand outlook. U.S. existing-home sales for March fell 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million.
MCX May crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 4800 levels with support around Rs 4780-60 levels and resistance near Rs 4840 levels.
Powered by Commodity Insights

Monday, 22 April 2013

Oil Inches Up Slightly In Asia

Oil....

Crude oil futures inched up in the Asia electronic session today after posting a loss of nearly 10% so far this month and 4% on the week.
NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for June delivery, the upcoming front-month contract rose 50 cents to $88.75 a barrel. The May oil contract finished last week with a loss of 3.6%, marking the third consecutive week of declines for the commodity.
Last week, oil prices dropped below $86.50 a barrel to their lowest settlement price since mid-December over demand concerns. The May crude futures contract is due to expire after the close of Monday’s session on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Worries over the global economy intensified earlier in the week after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3%, down from its January projection of 3.5%. The growth projection for China was trimmed to 8% from 8.2%, while the growth outlook for the U.S. was lowered to 1.9% from 2%.
The Group of 20 meeting Friday was also a focal point for the energy markets, which continued to reel from weak prospects for demand. The G-20 finance ministers and central bank governments said economic policy makers must take more action to spur global growth. Economic policy makers around the world must take more action to help spur demand, the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors said in a joint statement released Friday.
MCX May crude oil futures are trading up nearly Rs 40 at Rs 4818 per barrel. The counter should continue to find a good support near Rs 4600 levels and resistance near Rs 5000-5100 levels in the near term.
In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Friday’s U.S. data on first quarter growth amid lingering concerns that the U.S. economic recovery is losing momentum.
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Gold Comes Out Of Darkness

Gold.....

Gold futures came out of last week's darkness, rising by nearly $30 an ounce buoyed by rally in the Asia equities and bargain buying. The metal hit a 2 year low of below $1330 last week attracting investors to buy the commodity.
Japanese shares soared Monday, leading Asian markets by a wide margin, with the yen tumbling as investors interpreted a statement from the Group of 20 major economies Friday as offering the international community's support for Tokyo's monetary stimulus.
Japan's Nikkei Stock Average% jumped 1.9%, getting a shot in the arm as the dollar rose back to just shy of the psychologically important 100-yen level. The G-20 leaders on Friday refrained from criticizing Japan for policies that weakened the yen and provided a competitive boost to its exporters.
Among the Chinese markets, the Hang Seng Index edged 0.1% higher in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.3% to give back some of the gains recorded last week despite steep losses for global commodity prices and some concerns about China's economic growth trajectory.
The move lower in Shanghai came as insurers dropped after a 7.0-magnitude earthquake in the Sichuan province, which killed at least 186 people and injured thousands, while some construction-related stocks advanced on hopes for reconstruction activity in the affected region.
Gold futures for June delivery are trading up $26 at $1422 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It should find support at $1,322 levels and a resistance near $1430 levels.
Despite Friday's upbeat performance, gold futures lost 5.4% on the week, the fourth consecutive weekly decline. Prices of the precious metal are now down almost 26% since hitting an all-time high of $1,920.80 an ounce in September 2011, sparking fears that gold's bull run is coming to an end.
Sentiment on the precious metal has been bearish amid speculation the Federal Reserve could end its bond-buying program sooner-than-expected and following a sell recommendation from Goldman Sachs earlier in the month.
News that Cyprus was to sell some of its gold reserves to raise funds for its bailout also weighed on sentiment, as it sparked concerns other debt-ridden European governments would be forced to do the same.
In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Friday's U.S. data on first quarter growth. Investors will be closely watching this data as they attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. recovery. Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing from the Federal Reserve.
MCX June gold futures may open today's session Rs 26300 levels with resistance near Rs 26500 levels. In the near term, it should hold on above Rs 25000 per 10 grams with resistance near Rs 27000-500 levels.
The festive season should also support the Indian gold prices in the physical markets. India celebrates Akshaya Tritiya, a key gold-buying festival, next month, while the wedding season will continue until early June. So far this month, the Indian gold prices have come down more than Rs 4000 per 10 grams and the silver prices have dived nearly Rs 10000 or 19% so far in the month of April.
Source by Commodity Insights

Friday, 19 April 2013

MCX Copper Recovered On Thursday After Bottom Fishing

Copper......

MCX Copper recovered lost ground on Thursday after bottom fishing kicked in the markets. This was another day when the LME and MCX Copper prices showed divergent moves. Earlier as well, Indian Rupee was creating difference in the prices of Copper and peers.
The medium term Copper moves are still vulnerable to sharp recovery. Copper futures on MCX ended at Rs 381.6 per kg, up 0.07 percent. The prices tested an intraday low of Rs 368.6 per kg and a high of Rs 383 per kg. Indian metals will open for the evening session, day trades are closed on account of Ram Navmi.
LME Copper three month prices of Copper slipped to $ 6955 per tonne, down $ 95 per tonne. The metal has further receded to $ 6985 per tonne on Friday. The problem with Copper prices at the moment is it nearness to cost of production. Some of the major Copper mines cost of production is $ 2.8 per pound that is equivalent to $ 6100-6200 per tonne cost. Decline in Copper prices further will minimize the incentive of producing metal. This can also bring some of the mine production in danger.
A factor that can support copper if prices fall from current levels is the drop down of production that will eradicate surplus metal from the markets. Moreover, Kennecott Utah mine of Rio Tinto that was damaged due to landslide in open pit area will remove 100000 tonnes of metal from market in 2013.
China has already missed the forecast for 8 percent growth in the first quarter. Even for the full year the growth rates in the country is revised down. China is a major consumer of copper. The China consumes 44 percent of World Copper.
In other news, Anglo America said that the Copper production for first quarter ending 2013 was 170400 tonnes, up 1 percent from 168400 tonnes from first quarter ending 2012. Copper production for the fourth quarter ending 2012 was 172900 tonnes.
Production from Los Bronces increased by 5% to 98,300 tonnes, with higher throughput at both plants offset by expected lower ore grades. This higher throughput also resulted in a 3% production increase compared to Q4 2012. Collahuasi's production decreased by 13%, owing to lower grades and the commencement of a 45 day planned shutdown of SAG Mill 3 on 21 March.
During the quarter, SAG Mill 3 operated at reduced capacity ahead of the planned shutdown. This mill is responsible for approximately 70% of plant throughput at Collahuasi. Production at El Soldado increased by 16%, as a result of expected higher grades and improved recoveries
Source by Commodity Insights

Thursday, 18 April 2013

LME Inventories Data- 18 April 2013

Source by Commodity Insights

World Nickel Markets In 6000 Tonnes Surplus During February 2013- WBMS

Nickel......

World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) has come up with its numbers for major metals. The agency has said that World nickel markets were in surplus of 6000 tonnes in the month of February 2013, as compared to a surplus of deficit of 3100 tonnes in January 2013.
Nickel was in surplus of 130400 tonnes in whole of 2012. On a cumulative basis, nickel markets recorded a surplus of 2800 tonnes in January-February 2013 compared to a surplus of 11800 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. The closing stocks of Nickel at the end of February were 159600 tonnes, up 12 percent from the year ending 2012 when stocks were 141700 tonnes.
World mined nickel production in February 2013 was 176200 tonnes, up 0.2 percent from 175900 tonnes in January 2013. In Jan-Feb 2013, World mined nickel production was 352100 tonnes, up 27 percent compared to 278100 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2012.
Refined nickel production of Nickel was 148400 tonnes in February 2013, down 5.5 percent compared to 157100 tonnes in January 2013. Production of refined nickel in Jan-Feb 2013 was 305500 tonnes, compared to 285500 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2012.
China refined nickel production in Jan-Feb 2013 was 99200 tonnes, up 50 percent from 66000 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2012. China produced 32 percent of total nickel produced in the world. China production of refined nickel in February was 46300 tonnes, down 12 percent from 52900 tonnes in January 2013.
Refined production of nickel in Japan was 31100 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2013, up 10 percent from similar period last year. Production in February was static at 15400 tonnes compared to 15800 tonnes in January 2013.
Refined production of nickel in EU27 was 20600 tonnes in first two months of the year, slightly lower than 20900 tonnes in first two months of January-February 2012.
Meanwhile, World refined nickel consumption was 302700 tonnes in first two months of the year, up 10.5 percent from 285500 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2012. Chinese refined nickel consumption was 143500 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2013, up 40 percent from 102700 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2012. China consumed 47 percent of total nickel consumed in the world.
Refined consumption in US declined by 15.6 percent to 20500 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2013 compared to 24300 tonnes in similar period last year. Consumption of EU 27 was 49400 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2013, down 17 percent from 59600 tonnes in Jan-Feb 2012.
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Wednesday, 17 April 2013

European Session Brings Correction In Copper

Copper........
European trading session again brought selling pressure back in Copper and other base metals. Metals strength has been quite lackluster as the markets now focus on IMF growth projections. Last night strength after positive indications from US housing markets and industrial production has been lost.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its forecast for global growth to 3.3 percent in February from projection of 3.5 percent in January 2013. Forecast for global growth in 2014 was lowered to 4 percent from 4.1 percent in earlier forecast. The forecast of China was lowered to 8 percent in February from 8.2 percent.
Red metal was expected to show some strength after a halt in Copper inventories rise was noted. Copper inventories declined by 3400 tonnes on Wednesday to 608525 tonnes. Copper inventories have increased by 92 percent in 2013.
LME Copper was trading at $ 7175 per tonne, down 1 percent from previous day's close. MCX Copper near month futures was trading at Rs 387.6 per kg, down 1.8 percent. The prices tested a low of Rs 385.3 per kg in the day.
The Chile based mining major Antofagasta reported that the production of Copper for the full year ended 2012 was 709600 tonnes; this was 11 percent increase from the previous year. The company expects production to remain lower this year to 698000 tonnes basically on account of slight decrease in ore grades in Los Pelambres. The company said that the Group copper production in 2013 is expected to be approximately 700000 tonnes.
Last night, the Industrial production in US rose 0.4 percent in March unlike analyst's expectations of 0.2 percent. The production was higher than expected but lowers from 1.1 percent in the month of February. US housing starts rose to 1.036 million in the month of March from 0.939 million in the month of February 2013.
Source by Commodity Insights

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Oil Stays Flat Ahead Of Inventories

Oil.....

Crude oil futures stayed flat in the Asia electronic session today with the traders awaiting the weekly oil inventories data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration due later today.
May crude oil futures are trading flat at $88.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it added a penny to settle at $88.72 a barrel, after touching intraday lows under $87. Prices had tallied a loss of more than 6% over the past three trading sessions.
Nymex oil on Monday dropped $2.58, or 2.8%, to $88.71 a barrel, the lowest settlement for a most-active contract since late December. Oil and other commodities sank Monday after quarterly economic growth and monthly industrial production numbers from China came in weaker than anticipated. The figures ramped up worries that demand for commodities, including oil, will soften.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday trimmed projections for global economic growth for this year and next to take into account sharp government spending cuts in the United States and the latest struggles of recession-stricken Europe.
While it said economic prospects had improved in recent months with a fading of financial risks, it warned Europe against relaxing efforts to combat its debt crisis given the messy bailout in Cyprus and a political stalemate in Italy.
Highlighting those concerns, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week reduced their global oil-demand growth estimates for the year slightly.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed total weekly U.S. crude stocks down by 6.7 million barrels, in contrast to a Reuters survey in which analysts forecast a rise of 1.3 million.
The API's report put gasoline stocks up by 253,000 barrels and distillate stocks up by 1.3 million barrels. Stocks of U.S. crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the U.S. crude contract, were up by 1.1 million barrels.
The more closely watched data from the U.S. government agency, the Energy Information Administration, will be released Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).
MCX April crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 4800 with resistance near Rs 4825 levels and support near Rs 4780 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Monday, 15 April 2013

Zinc Recovers 1.2 Percent In LME

Zinc.....
After getting cornered by 1.5 percent on Monday, Zinc has eradicated most of its losses on Tuesday as it pumped up by 1.2 percent. The LME three month Zinc prices were seen trading at $ 1871 per tonne, against $ 1848 per tonne on Monday.
International Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global Zinc markets were in surplus of 50000 tonnes in January- February 2013. This was lower than 123000 tonnes in January-February 2013.
Total production of Refined Zinc was 2.12 million tonnes in January-February 2013 while the refined Zinc consumption was 2.077 million tonnes in the same period.
On MCX, Zinc April contract is trading at Rs 100.5 per kg, down 0.25 percent on account of recovery in Rupee against the US Dollar. The Indian Rupee was seen trading at 54.34 against the greenback, up 0.5 percent.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Bear Run Starts

Gold.....


Stretching into the third session of losses, the yellow metal seems to end its 12 year long bull run with the panic selling taking it down by as much as $179 an ounce in late trade on Monday to a fresh 27-month low.
Today, as well it opened down, trading at $ 1347 per ounce on the COMEX division of New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price is down more than 18.7% this year and Friday's sharp decline dragged the metal it into official bear territory, defined as a 20% decline from a high.
U.S. stock indexes fell the most in five months Monday, swept up in a rush out of gold, oil and other commodities, after reports from China showed the industrial giant's growth had cooled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended near its lows of the day, down 265.86 points, or 1.8%, to 14,599.20. The S&P 500 index sank 36.49 points, or 2.3%, to 1,552.36. The Nasdaq Composite fell 78.46 points, or 2.4%, to 3,216.49.
Soured sentiment built as the session wore on, exacerbated by a drop in a gauge of U.S. home builders' confidence. Some strategists said the pullback was expected after stock indexes notched records last week.
CME Group Inc. said it will raise the collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday.
Margins to trade benchmark Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, CME said in a notice emailed late Monday. The margin to trade silver will increase 18%, palladium will increase 14% and platinum will increase 19%. Natural-gas futures will increase 5.6%
Futures exchanges like CME keep tabs on market volatility as they determine how much collateral, or margin, traders must deposit to back up trades. When markets like gold begin to rapidly swing, exchanges may decide that customers need a bigger cushion to cover changes to their positions.
Gold
hit a record $1,909 an ounce intra-day on 23 August 2011, but a the next day suffered one of few triple digit one-day losses when it plummeted $105, ending the week down more than 10% from the all-time high.
For 10 years the price of gold shot up, aided especially by the stock market meltdown of 2009. After hitting its high in August 2011, gold saw a gradual decline as the stock market rose into record territory. Then it plummeted 25% last week, indicating growing global economic weaknesses.
MCX June gold futures may open today's session near Rs 25400 levels with support around Rs 25100 levels.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Hot Commodities: MCX Gold Hit On Negative Global Vibes, Down 3%

Gold....
MCX Gold futures were hit by a massive wave of selling in the international markets as weak technical cues, worries over failure of the metal to hold at higher levels and waning interest by the hedge funds all conspired to take tall a massive toll on the commodity for a second day. The COMEX Gold futures had slipped heavily on Friday and was seen breaking under $1500 levels though an intraday recovery emerged and made it close just above $1500 levels. This bounce proved fickle though and the metal went down in a hurry today, slipping to a near two year low of $1422 per ounce and currently trades at $1436.50, down $64.90 per ounce.

Asian markets mostly slipped and industrial metals as well as crude oil corrected as well as a tepid Chinese Q1 GDP data hit the markets. China National Bureau of Statistics showed that the GDP unexpectedly slowed down to 7.7% in first quarter of 2013, compared to 7.9% of GDP for final quarter of 2012. According to preliminary statistics, the GDP totaled 11.89 trillion yuan or $ 1.9 trillion in the first three months. China's full-year annual growth in 2012 eased to 7.8 percent, its weakest since 1999.

Nothing specific hit the bullion markets on Friday but it seemed that markets grew nervous ahead of the weekend after the plethora of downgrades witnessed to Gold prices by big names like Goldman Sacks and UBS. The metal has been witnessing a consistent buying by central bankers though and at these bargain levels, there is a possibility that demand from retailers would kick in, particularly in India and Middle East.

Indian Gold markets should witness a hurried activity given that the today's massive drop has taken spot prices to a 15 month low around Rs 27k mark in major trading centers like Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad. The country imported around 100 tonnes of Gold in January 2013- its highest level in 18 months. MCX Gold futures broke under the critical 29k levels last week and extended the rampant fall. The metal traded at a low of Rs 26927 per 10 grams and currently trades at Rs 27051, down Rs 874 per 10 grams or 3.13% on the day with 4.80% drop in the open interest.
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Sunday, 14 April 2013

Gold Slaps Below $1430 In Asia

Gold....


Gold futures got slapped below $1430 an ounce in the Asia electronic session today extending its last week’s losses. The sentiments for gold were hurt by the recent cuts in the price forecasts by various investment banks.
Downside tilt in gold began after the investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that gold's prospects for the year have eroded, recommending investors close out long positions and initiate bearish bets, or shorts. The shift in outlook was the latest among banks and investors who have soured on gold as its dozen-year runup has been followed by a 12% decline in the last six months.
Goldman's note followed another major blow to the metal last week from Société Générale. The French bank declared "The End of the Gold Era" in the title of its report, positing not just the possibility of a bear market but an outright crash and saying "gold may have had its last hurrah."
Deutsche Bank and UBS both cut their average gold price forecasts yesterday, to $1637 and $1740 respectively.
Gold for June delivery are trading $61 at $ 1440 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, it dropped $63.50, or 4.1%, to settle at $1,501.40 an ounce, after dipping to a low of $1,491.40. It fell 4.7% for the week.
In the coming week, the U.S. is to publish a broad range of economic data, with reports on manufacturing activity, the housing sector and inflation due for release.
Investors will be closely watching this data as they attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. recovery. Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing.
On Friday, data showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% in March, the largest decline in nine months and missing expectations for a 0.1% increase. A separate report showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 72.3 in April, the lowest level since July, from a final reading of 78.6 in March.

June gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 26500 levels with support near Rs 26000 and Rs 25000 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Friday, 12 April 2013

Gold Pulls Down Further

Gold.....
Gold futures pulled down further in the early London trades today with the equities and oil futures also trading lower. The macroeconomic numbers from U.S. were also in the spotlight on Friday, ahead of a report on retail sales expected to show a slight decline.
The metal was unable to break past the $1600 an ounce levels as series of banks cut the price outlook this week. Investors this week heard from Goldman Sachs, which dropped its gold forecast for 2013 to $1,545 an ounce, down from a prior forecast of $1,610. Also, minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed members were at odds about when to stop quantitative easing.
Cyprus also popped back into the headlines for gold, with the financially troubled country reportedly agreeing to sell excess gold reserves to help with its bailout efforts.
Goldman's note followed another major blow to the metal last week from Société Générale. The French bank declared "The End of the Gold Era" in the title of its report, positing not just the possibility of a bear market but an outright crash and saying "gold may have had its last hurrah." Deutsche Bank and UBS both cut their average gold price forecasts yesterday, to $1637 and $1740 respectively.
Gold for June delivery fell $6 to $1,559, on track for a weekly fall of nearly 1% on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The futures contract this week settled with gains twice and lost ground twice, with Wednesday’s drop of $27.90, or 1.8%, marking gold’s biggest one-day dollar and percentage loss for a most-active contract since November. It finished Thursday’s session up by $6.10, or 0.4%, at $1,564.90 an ounce
Gold may look for direction from reports due later Friday on U.S. retail sales and producer prices in March. Also on Friday, Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Federal Reserve, will speak at 8:45 a.m. Eastern Time, at the start of the Boston Fed’s two-day economic policy conference.
Rosengren, a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate setting board this year, is a strong proponent of the central bank’s bond-buying program.
MCX June gold futures are trading at Rs 29200 per 10 grams up nearly Rs 15. The traders may sell it around current levels with target of Rs 29155 and Rs 29090 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Thursday, 11 April 2013

Oil Losses Exacerbates As IEA Cuts Forecast

Oil.....

Crude oil losses exacerbated in the Asia electronic session today as traders reacted to the cut in the price forecast by IEA yesterday. Earlier in the week OPEC had also downgraded the demand for oil.
The International Energy Agency once again cut its outlook for global oil demand Thursday, but warned significant supply risks continue to threaten the market. The downward revision by the Paris-based consumer group reflects similar moves by other industry forecasters earlier this week as concerns over the state of the global economy continue to weigh on demand expectations.
In its monthly oil market report published Wednesday, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries downgraded its forecast of world oil demand growth by 40,000 barrels a day for 2013, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its outlook by 140,000 barrels a day.
In its closely-watched monthly oil market report published Thursday, the IEA cut its expectations of oil demand growth to 795,000 barrels a day down from 820,000 barrels a day last month.
The decline reflects exceptionally weak demand from industrialized countries, particularly in Europe where consumption in 2013 is expected to be the lowest since the 1980s, the IEA said.
The IEA also warned that insecurity in Libya is threatening to derail the countrys production outlook. Output fell by 40,000 barrels a day last month to 1.36 million barrels a day, according to the IEAs data. That is 150,000 barrels a day lower than the official figure provided by Libya to OPEC in its most recent report, published Wednesday.
Iranian output also remains constrained by strict Western sanctions with exports falling to 1.1 million barrels a day in March, down from 1.26 million barrels a day in February, the IEA said.
NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures are trading down 23 cents at $ 93.28 per barrel. On Thursday it dropped $1.13, or 1.2%, to $93.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the IEA said it now expects global oil-demand growth of 7
95,000 barrels a day, down from a previous forecast of 820,000 barrels a day.
MCX April crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 5080 levels with resistance near Rs 5110 levels and support near Rs 5040 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights

Copper Declines Again Ahead of Weekend, Fed Stimulus Concerns Weigh

Copper......
The weekend brought profit booking back in Copper that was rising on the back of strike news in Chile. The red metal pared gains after the strike was over and the reality yet again came to haunt the prices. LME Copper three month prices settled at $ 7544 per tonne, down $ 31 per tonne. Other metals like Nickel and Aluminium also declined by $ 150 and $ 24 per tonne respectively.
The indicators from US continued to pressurize the metals. Soon after jobless claims report hit the markets it was clear that Federal Reserve was one step ahead in curbing the $ 85 billion quantitative easing programme earlier. US jobless claims declined by 42000 to 346000 during the week ending 6 April ahead of expected 360000.
However, IMF report that the World economy may grow by 3.4 percent in 2013 from earlier expectation of 3.5 percent can be a deterrent for metals. US GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 percent from earlier estimate of 2 percent for the year.
Dollar was lower against the Euro but that didn't help Copper and peers. The US currency ended at 1.3105 on 11 April as against 1.3066 a day before. Indian Rupee was stable at 54.52 against the Dollar on Thursday. INR is trading at 54.49 on Friday versus the Dollar.
China demand concerns are still in the news and this is making market participants skeptical. China is the biggest consumer of major metals in the world.
MCX Copper April expiry contract suffered from the highs of Rs 413.4 per kg and settled at Rs 412.5 per kg. Open interest in the contract increased to 30434 from 29597 contracts. Volumes in the metal was 94494 kgs against 83069 kgs.
Source by Commodity Insights


Copper Stocks Once Again In Limelight, Metals Decline

Copper stocks were once again in limelight as prices declined after three days of relief rally. The talks that US will stop the quantitative easing measures earlier tumbled Copper and peers. Amid all this, Copper inventories continued to swell and has ballooned to 590175 tonnes, up 2250 tonnes.
The fall in QE programme can bring down the prices of metals that has been riding on account of investment demand. The reports that Chile 24 hour strike ended eased the metal further down on Thursday. Codelco is the biggest Copper producer in the world. LME Copper was trading at $ 7545 per tonne, down $ 30 per tonne.
It should be made clear that manufacturing growth in world major consumers has been slowing down and recovery will take time. Therefore the rise in metals has been majorly due to speculative and investment led demand. Metals like Aluminium, Copper and Zinc have been supported by the financial deals.
But situation has changed in 2013, ample of supplies in spot markets is clubbed by falling demand while rising stockpiles is now a worry. Till December 2012 news was that the fall in spot supplies was pressurizing the prices. Copper has seen the rise of 85 percent in inventories this year. Similar is the case of Aluminium where inventories have crossed 5.2 million till early April.
Meanwhile, China reported its trade data for the month of March 2013 yesterday. The data from General Administration of Customs showed that the imports of unwrought Aluminium and Aluminium products was 69845 tonnes in March 2013, down 42 percent from 120494 tonnes from March 2012.
Indian Copper futures for April expiry declined by 0.5 percent, and were seen at Rs 409.8 per kg. The prices tested low of Rs 409 per kg. The prices are supported at Rs 408 per kg and have resistance at Rs 413.5 per kg.
Markets will be eyeing for the initial jobless claims data from the US, due to be released on Thursday. Increase in jobless claims will make market players believe that the stimulus measures will continue.
Source by Commodity Insights

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

Economic Buzz: Australian Unemployment Rate Rises In March

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australian employment change fell to a seasonally adjusted -36.1K in March, from 74.0K in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 71.5K. Analysts had expected Australian employment change to fall -5.0K last month.
Australian Bureau of Statistics added that Australian unemployment rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 5.6% in March, from 5.4% in the preceding month.
Source by Commodity Insights

World Copper Mines Will Boost Supplies, Copper To Remain Under Pressure

Copper......
The Copper prices recovery may be short lived considering heavy supplies coming in the markets in few months time. The ageing Copper mines and supply disruptions was the most critical factor that made Copper markets to remain in deficits in last few years. The scenario has changed and miners like BHP Billiton and Freeport McMoran etc have plans to increase their production capacities. BHP Billiton is planning to set up a new plant in Escondida to expand mining of ores. Taking this into account, it is probable that Copper recoveries will be short lived whenever that happens.
Another critical factor is the drop down in Chinese imports. China consumes 40 percent of Copper in the world, decline in imports by more than 30 percent as per the latest data indicates that the Bull Run for Copper is over and prices are under clutches of bears.
Fund managers have been increasing their shorts to record levels as per COT report. Commitment of trader's weekly report highlighted tough days for Copper. The report showed that fund managers continued to increase their short positions. The total short positions gained by 7582 contracts taking total short contracts number to 60302. Long contracts showed a decline of 1382 contracts and were at 21302. Total net short positions therefore moved up by 30% to 39000 contracts.
LME inventories were at 587925 tonnes, up 85 percent in 2013. Shanghai inventories was at 241943 tonnes, up 18 percent in 2013. Indian Copper futures for April expiry declined by 0.5 percent, after testing high of Rs 414.3 per kg. The prices tested levels of Rs 412.5 per kg. LME Copper three month prices are seen trading at $ 7565 per tonne, down $ 10 per tonne from last night.
In economic news, Eurozone GDP is expected to contract 0.3% this year which will further reduce the demand for Copper and other metals. Dollar was trading at 1.3056 against Euro, up 10 pips.
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Vedanta Aluminium Production 10 Percent Higher In Q4

Aluminium.....

Vedanta Resources came out with its fourth quarter and full year production report for period ending FY 2013. Aluminium production was 10% higher at 195000 tonnes in Q4, and 15% higher at 774000 tonnes in full year, as compared with the corresponding prior periods.
The Jharsuguda-I and Korba-II smelters operated above their rated capacities, with significant improvement in specific power consumption and throughput at Jharsuguda-I. Power sales at BALCO 270MW were lower in Q4 and full year due to evacuation constraints.
Alumina production at Lanjigarh remains temporarily suspended since 5 December 2012, due to inadequate availability of bauxite. The company is engaged with the Orissa state authorities for allocation of bauxite as per existing MoU with the Orissa state government.
Separately, company is working on obtaining bauxite supplies for the refinery from other sources including our captive mines at BALCO, in order to restart the refinery operations. As stated earlier, the production of alumina will not affect production at the smelters.
At the 325ktpa Korba-III aluminium smelter, mechanical and electrical completion and pre-commissioning of the rectifier, potline and related utilities for the first phase of 84 pots out of the total 336 pots have been completed.
Further work is in progress, and company plans to tap first metal in Q2 FY2014. The smelter plans to initially draw power from the existing 810MW power plants at BALCO. The first 300MW unit of the BALCO 1,200MW captive power plant is awaiting final stage regulatory approvals. Having obtained the Stage-II Forest Clearance for the 211mt coal block at BALCO, the process for diversion of forest land has been initiated by the State Government.
Source by Commodity Insights

Commodities Buzz: Brazilian Corn Output Seen At Record On Small Variety

Conab, the Brazilian official crop bureau noted in its monthly estimates lifted its domestic corn output by more than 1.3 million (m) tonnes to a record 77.45m tonnes this season. This was primarily prompted by an extended rainy season and mostly reflects a rise in the so-called little corn crop, the safrinha harvest.

Conab, the Brazilian crop bureau - in monthly estimates which trimmed 300,000 tonnes from the estimate for soybean output in 2012-13 - lifted by more than 1.3m tonnes to a record 77.45m tonnes its forecast for domestic corn production.

The upgrade reflected a raise to 41.28m tonnes in the estimate for the safrinha crop, leaving it far ahead of the 34.8m tonnes at which the main crop, currently being harvested, was pegged.

The USDA estimates that Brazil would be exporting 19 m tonnes of corn in 2012-13, within 2 m tonnes of overtaking the as the world's top corn exporting nation.
Source by Commodity Insights

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Oil Weak As Supplies Rise, China Deficit

Oil......
China crude oil futures are trading lower in the Asia electronic session today pressured by sharp rise in the weekly crude oil supplies and also due to weak trade data from China. However, the rise in oil price forecast by EIA should support the commodity.
China swung to a trade deficit of $880 million in March, the General Administration of Customs reported Wednesday, as imports surged 14.1% from a year earlier. The deficit followed February's $15.2 billion surplus. The gain in imports fell more than 15% in February. Exports rose 10% from March 2012.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its West Texas Intermediate crude-oil and natural-gas price forecasts for this year, from its March estimates. WTI crude-oil prices are likely to average $94 in 2013, the EIA said in its short-term energy outlook report. In March, it forecast an average of $92 in for 2013.
NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures for May contract are trading down 30 cents at $ 93.92 a barrel in the Asia electronic session today. Traders await reports from, Energy Information Administration and OPEC this week.
Yesterday, the crude oil futures for May delivery climbed 84 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $94.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest settlement since April 3.
Contributing to oil’s gains, March consumer inflation in China came in below expectations, lifting prospects for energy demand, and the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro.
According to data from the American Petroleum Institute issued late Tuesday, crude-oil supplies rose much more than forecast, and gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly climbed for the week ended April 5,. The trade group also upwardly revised total stocks for the week ended March 29 by over 500,000 barrels.
MCX April crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 5120 levels with resistance near Rs 5150 levels and support near Rs 5090 levels.
Source by Commodity Insights


Copper Moves Higher On Falling Dollar

Copper......
Falling Dollar and supply disruptions by union workers of Chile Codelco supported the metal for the second straight day in a row. LME Copper three month prices moved up by $ 32 per tonne as Dollar moved further lower against the Euro for the fifth trading session. A heavy rise of 8150 tonnes of Copper inventories in LME was digested by the players. The inventories have reached 2003 highs and are at 587550 tonnes.
Copper miners in Chile conducted a one day strike to press for the need of job security in mining sector in the country. The supplies of Copper are expected to be impacted by the strike. This favored the buying in red metal.
In currency markets, Dollar moved down by 0.12% to 1.3035 against the Euro. In last five days, Dollar has broken 1.5% of its value against the European counterpart. Dollar declines bring support to the commodities. Indian Rupee was seen at 54.62, down 0.13% against the Dollar.
In economic news, Data from National Bureau of Statistics has said that Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) has grown by 2.1 percent year on year in March. The CPI was at 10 month high of 3.2 percent in February. On a month-on-month basis, food prices in China dropped 2.9 percent in March.
Germany reported a rise in trade surplus in March due to weakness in imports and stable exports. The trade balance was Euro 17.1 Billion compared to Euro 15.6 billion in February. The analyst's expectations were of narrowing down of surplus to Euro 15.1 billion. LME Copper was last seen trading at $ 7523 per tonne. Indian MCX Copper contract was trading at Rs 410 per kg, up 0.55%. The metal tested a high of Rs 410.7 per kg and a low of Rs 408 per kg.
Warehouse stocks of Aluminium declined by 9825 tonnes to 5203150 tonnes. The stocks of LME Aluminium have declined by 0.25% in 2013 so far. LME Aluminium three month prices were seen at $ 1893 per tonne, down $ 6 per tonne. The prices of MCX Aluminium were at Rs 102.45 per kg, down 0.10%.
Source by Commodity Insights

Monday, 8 April 2013

Economic Buzz: China Monthly CPI Falls 0.90% In March

National Bureau of Statistics of China said that Chinese Consumer Price Index for the month of March came below market expectations, with the monthly read at -0.9% vs -0.6% expected and +1.1% in February. On a yearly basis, March saw the CPI stand at +2.1% vs 2.4% expected, with the prior February read at +3.2.
Source by Commodity Insights

Copper Cashes The News Of Strike Threats In Chile

Copper....
Copper recovered for the second consecutive day after the news of strike threats by Chilean workers underpinned the metal. LME three month Copper prices moved up by $ 78 per tonne at $ 7490 per tonne. The metal has further moved to $ 7520 per tonne on Tuesday.
Union workers in Chile Codelco have announced a nationwide strike today asking for greater job security. Workers in other organization Anglo America, BHP Billiton and Antofagasta are also planning for similar strikes. These companies are biggest producers of Copper and strike threats are giving premium to the seven month low prices of red metal.
Meanwhile, China has reported decline in CPI inflation numbers representing a weakening in demand. Copper and metals that are riding on the back of strike threats are likely to sideline this cue in the coming days.
Data from National Bureau of Statistics has said that Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) has grown by 2.1 percent year on year in March. The CPI was at 10 month high of 3.2 percent in February. On a month-on-month basis, food prices in China dropped 2.9 percent in March.
Among other metals, Nickel has been moving higher on the back of bottom fishing at discounted levels. Lackluster manufacturing sector in China and high inventories is a worry for Nickel prices. Most of the base metals these days are losing strength due to heavy pile up of inventories.
LME inventories have increased 19.56 percent to 166284 tonnes. LME Nickel three month prices were at $ 16214 per tonne compared to $ 16180 per tonne on Monday. MCX Nickel closed at Rs 881 per kg, up 0.42 percent.
MCX Copper April expiry contract closed at Rs 407.9 per kg, up 0.56 percent. The prices tested a high of Rs 410 per kg and a low of Rs 406.7 per kg in the day. Further moves upwards can take prices towards Rs 412 per kg.
Source by Commodity Insights


Copper Halts After Three Weekly Losses

Copper....

After three straight week of losses metals like Copper, Aluminium and Nickel picked some strength on the back of talks that Federal Reserve will continue to assist the markets for some more time and decline in Copper stocks after relentless rise. Copper warehouse stocks have grown more than 80 percent in 2013 and were at 2003 highs.
The fall in LME inventories by 200 tonnes gave a sigh of relief from exorbitant rise seen in last few days. The inventories are now at 579400 tonnes. The Shanghai on warrants data showed a fall of 5889 tonnes to 63006 tonnes. The fall in on warrants means that stocks to be taken out of the warehouses.
Relief rally was chipping in other metals like Aluminium as well. The LME Aluminium prices were up by $ 18 per tonne to $ 1892 per tonne. Prices of Nickel were up by $ 196 per tonne at $ 16196 per tonne.
In economic news, industrial production in Germany was up by 0.5% in February, amid expectations of 0.3% increase. On an annualized basis, industrial production fell by 1.8% in February. Meanwhile, Yen was at four years low against the Dollar as Bank of Japan remained adamant to bring its economy out of recession. The Bank of Japan has purchased 1 trillion Yen of bonds with maturity of five and ten years as a part of government bond purchasing operation. Apart from that the Bank also purchased 200 billion yen worth of bonds maturing in more than 10 years.
Indian Copper prices were at Rs 409 per kg, up 0.9% when last checked, with a intraday high of Rs 409.6 and a low of Rs 407.2 per kg. Steel material Nickel was at Rs 887 per kg, up 1.1%. MCX Zinc was trading at Rs 103 per kg, up 0.3%.
Source by Commodity Insights

Gold Slips Under 29700 On MCX, Broad scenario supportive

Gold....

MCX Gold futures dropped amid profit selling after a massive rally in the Friday's session. Gold futures got a boost on the disappointing jobs data, which put to rest recent sentiments that the Federal Reserve may consider tightening policy in the coming months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier the economy added 88,000 nonfarm payrolls in March, way below expectations for a gain of 200,000 and below the 268,000 jobs added in February. The metal edged up at a ferocious pace following this, adding nearly 30 dollars in intraday moves. The counter currently quotes at $1577.50, up $1.6 per ounce on the day.

The broad sentiments are supportive for Gold. Japanese Yen dropped to near four month lows today as the country's central bank got its massive stimulus program underway. The euro was also dented by troubles in Portugal. The European Commission warned in a statement yesterday that failure by Portugal to implement its austerity program would results in the curtailment of future financial aid.

The US non farm data revealed on Friday that the private sector added 95,000 jobs last month, after an increase of 254,000 in February, missing expectations for a 209,000 rise. The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% in March, from 7.7% the previous month, as more Americans left the labor force. The news sent the dollar falling and gold rising on expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep monetary stimulus programs in place, including its USD85 billion monthly bond-buying program that weakens the greenback as a side effect.

COMEX Gold has come off a high above $1582 per ounce an there could be some upside resistance for the yellow metal after the massive array of gains seen on Friday. The US dollar is quoting just under 1.3000 levels against the Euro, coming off its two-week low levels but would be benefited from the Portugal troubles. MCX Gold futures slipped as the Rs 29800 barrier yet again triggered a correction. The counter quotes at Rs 29654 down Rs 113 per 10 grams on the day with 1.57% increase in the open interest.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Sunday, 7 April 2013

Lackluster Manufacturing Sector And High Inventories Worry For Nickel

Nickel......
Lackluster manufacturing sector in China and high inventories is a worry for Nickel prices. Most of the base metals these days are losing strength due to heavy pile up of inventories. LME inventories have increased 19.56 percent to 166284 tonnes.
Meanwhile, China manufacturing sector might face crisis considering the tightening norms by Chinese government to curb the overheating real estate sector.
LME Nickel three month prices were at $ 16061 per tonne, up $ 61 per tonne. On MCX, Nickel April expiry futures were trading at Rs 883 per kg, up 0.59 percent. Nickel upper cap is at Rs 890 per kg.
Source  by Commodity Insights

Copper futures gains after falling for three consecutive weeks

Copper......


Copper futures in London gained after falling for three consecutive weeks as data showed orders to remove the metal from warehouses rose to the highest level in more than 15 years.
Copper on the London metal exchange increased 0.8% at $7,467.50 a metric ton.

Thursday, 4 April 2013

Rupee and Asian Premiums Support Indian Metal

Copper.....
Asian premiums are improving that helped the prices of Copper recovering from the lows. The rise was witnessed in India after the news that Sterlite industries production got halted by emission worries. Supreme Court fined the company Rs 100 crores over five years for air pollution. Although apex court has set aside the order to shut down the plant by Madras High Court. Indian Copper and other metals moved higher aided by rising premiums and falling Rupee.
Meanwhile, port strike in Chile and problems in companies like Codelco and Anglo America relating to blockages supported high premiums. Grade A Copper premiums in Singapore were at $ 65 per tonne compared to $ 40 per tonne last Friday.
In London, situation remained different as the prices closed at eight month lows due to rise in inventories that have reached highs of 2003. The LME three month Copper prices closed at $ 7373 per tonne, down $ 63 per tonne. Inventories gained by 6850 tonnes to 579175 tonnes, rising 80% this year.
On economic front, news of rise in jobless claims numbers didn't went well with participants of metals. This week some grim data has already hit the markets. The US PMI numbers were on the downside followed by New orders index decline and US non manufacturing PMI decline. This was followed by yesterday's jobless claims numbers that increased by 28000 for the week ending 30 March 2013 to reach 385000. The four week moving average was 354250, up 11250 from previous week.
Dollar recovered against the Euro on hopes that Federal Reserve can continue its quantitative support to the economy. The Dollar was 1.2817, up 1.3% against the Euro. ECB left the interest rates unchanged at 0.75% while speculation was that the ECB could lower the rates to support ailing economy. Weak Rupee supported the metals in India. Rupee ended at 54.27 against the Dollar and is now trading at 54.80 indicating that Copper can go further up on MCX.
Indian Copper April expiry contract on MCX closed at Rs 409 per kg, up 1.4%. The prices tested a low of Rs 401.5 per kg before recovery chipped in. Among other metals, Zinc was the outperformer with gains of 2.2%, to settle at Rs 103.3 per kg. Short covering was the basic reason for the rise. Volumes picked sharply higher to 39195 kgs compared to 31084 kgs on 3 April 2013.
Source by Commodity Insights